I have no knowledge of any right which I have to add to the number of letters (Already perhaps of a style that may seem improper) which I have at different times written to your lordship, but a fact or two has occurred to my knowledge which I beg to communicate in extreme confidence.1

On monday last, the 19th the American ministers went to communicate their late conferences with Mr. Oswald, & the news of his having proposed independence to his court, as a measure to be by them adopted. They went as if to say a thing that was to prove acceptable. M Vergennes however, professed not to understand the good sense of their measures, & thought that independence should be a subject of general treaty. Much conversation passed, but he did not choose to understand their reason for the measure they had taken. In the course of what had passed M. Vergennes told them that he should send to or see Mr. Fitzhe[r]bert (I cannot find which were the exact words) on the Tuesday, which was the 20th: I understand Mr. Fitzherbert did see England [Oswald?], by whom I did not write, having no notice of it. The quarter however whence I have this intelligence adds that M Vergennes seemed to wear the appearance of being not a little embarrassed by the supposed approach of the acknowledgement of independence.

I have also to mention to your lordship, that Mr Jay said to me one day, when alone in his carriage, “why will not your court cut the cord that ties us to France, and why can they suppose we can be quiet (while the very end of the treaty is independence) till independence is guaranteed.” He also suffered me to understand that while on the one hand little was to be got by bargaining with America, that much would be done by conceding this one point to her, & that the best way England’s making a good bargain with France was by making a good agreement with America; (evidently because France could make better terms having America in her own interests that when America became in England’s interests).2 He said if this thing was not guaranteed that was written for, there was end to all confidence, and he would rather the war should go on to his grandsons than independence be given up.

Much conversation of this sort passed in which he was wholly without reserve. Fearing however the most, I endeavored to state & prepare reasons, that I said might induce the English ministry to postpone their declaration, notwithstanding the best intentions and grounds of confidence still subsisting in their favor. But I cannot say that these arguments had entire weight. Such, my Lord, is the specimen of the many things I hear in this place. I am more of a doubting politician than your lordship suspects, but nevertheless I cannot but give weight to evidence, supported by the knowledge both of the interests & temper of the particular parties, when I find them combined in favor of the same general point.

They talk of 5 sail of the line with 60 more merchantmen being arrived at Bellisle from the French W. Indies, but the rest of the merchantmen are to come by another opportunity.

This is the third arrival of ships & trade lately from the W. Indies, if the present news is accurate. There are those who still talk of the attack on Gibraltar having begun on the 15th & Mr. Walpole & others have hinted to me that C. D Estaing is possibly to command the combined fleet at Cadiz. I saw him (Count D Estaing) a day or two ago, however, at the Italian Comedy, and have not heard of his leaving his house at Passy.

Dr. Franklin is very much indisposed this week with gravelly complaints, but to-day is somewhat better. In the warm bath he for some days has voided small stones. I have told him that I should at all events wait the return of Mr. Oswald’s courier, to give him an opportunity of sending his last intimations, which he has promised to your lordship. I have the honor to be My Lord, Your Lordship’s faithful and respectful Servt.